MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

OPEN POLY··

CAUTIONMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCESTRUCTURE / NEUTRAL LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

WATCH: Thin liquidity or a wide spread can make the displayed price hard to execute at size.

OTHER · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 2m AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSSTRUCTURE / NEUTRALLOW CONFIDENCE

Linked contracts and structural constraints matter more here than a single isolated quote.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

10.8%

EDGE

LOW

CONFIDENCE

LOW

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

MIXED

Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

MIXED

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 11cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE11c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHRECENT

AS OF07:20 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 1C

1C - 1C

18%

1C - 11C

28%

11C - 22C

30%

22C - 33C

12%

ABOVE 33C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE low

CONTEXT

No category context available.

FOCUS

—

WATCH

0 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOADING CHART...

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

10.8%

SPREAD

—

VOL 24H

$529

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

RECENT 2M

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOADING DEPTH...

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

RULES

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

No external context available for this market category.

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

5mo 5d

TOTAL VOL 24H

$529

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

LIVE · 2026-05-28 07:20 UTC

DERIVED

RECENT · 2026-05-28 07:08 UTC

RULES

LIVE · 2026-05-28 07:20 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-05-28 07:20 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

MIXED DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 07:20 UTC

IMPLIED YES

10.8%

SPREAD —

VOL 24H $529

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

—

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

POLY BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

—

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·—

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS