MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

OPEN POLY··

CAUTIONWEAK DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

SPORTS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 1089h AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

99.9%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

DEEP

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

WEAK

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality WEAK.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

WEAK

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

DEEP

Best buy route is POLYMARKET. Best sell route is POLYMARKET. Visible depth is $232K.

BEST BUY

POLYMARKET · —

BEST SELL

POLYMARKET · —

VISIBLE DEPTH

$232K

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 99cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE99c

LIQUIDITYDEEP

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF02:13 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 93C

93C - 96C

18%

96C - 99C

28%

99C - 99C

30%

99C - 99C

12%

ABOVE 99C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

GENERIC

Official result and schedule status

FOCUS

Official result and schedule status

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Official game status and final result

Late injury, inactive, or lineup changes

Postponement, suspension, or overtime status

SOURCES

ESPN Scoreboard

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOADING CHART...

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

99.9%

SPREAD

—

VOL 24H

$4.2M

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 1089H

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOADING DEPTH...

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament. If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules. If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

SPORTS CONTEXT

Official result and schedule status

Sports context sources for event verification.

WATCH

Official game status and final result

Late injury, inactive, or lineup changes

Postponement, suspension, or overtime status

SOURCES

ESPN Scoreboard

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

EXPIRED

TOTAL VOL 24H

$4.2M

TOTAL DEPTH

$232K

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

STALE · 2026-04-13 02:13 UTC

DERIVED

STALE · 2026-04-13 02:13 UTC

RULES

STALE · 2026-04-13 02:13 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-04-13 02:13 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

WEAK DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 02:13 UTC

IMPLIED YES

99.9%

SPREAD —

VOL 24H $4.2M

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

—

DEPTH

$232K

FRESH

STALE

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·3.0%·F50

1K·3.0%·F50

10K·3.0%·F50

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

FILL 50%

POLY BOOK

$232K · BID HEAVY

SPREAD

—

BALANCE

100 / 0

FILL

50%

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

3.00%

SPREAD·—

FILL CONFIDENCE·50%

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·3.00%

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS