MARKET OVERVIEW

Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?

VENUE INTEGRITY WARNING2 polymarket contracts — showing best representative

OPEN POLY··

CAUTIONMIXED DATALOW CONFIDENCESTRUCTURE / NEUTRAL LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S.

WATCH: Thin liquidity or a wide spread can make the displayed price hard to execute at size.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 2m AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSSTRUCTURE / NEUTRALLOW CONFIDENCE

Linked contracts and structural constraints matter more here than a single isolated quote.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

73.5%

EDGE

LOW

CONFIDENCE

LOW

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

MULTIEvent Ladder

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · MULTI OUTCOME · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

MIXED

Confidence LOW. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

MIXED

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Execution posture is derived from visible depth, spread, and venue routing.

BEST BUY

—

BEST SELL

—

VISIBLE DEPTH

NONE

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 74cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE74c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHRECENT

AS OF07:20 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 51C

51C - 62C

18%

62C - 74C

28%

74C - 85C

30%

85C - 96C

12%

ABOVE 96C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE low

CONTEXT

TARGETED

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

FOCUS

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov House Clerk Votes Senate Roll Call Votes

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LINKED CONTRACT LINES (2) · POLYMARKET

Click a contract row to focus it here. Use POLY to open the native venue.

POLY

LOADING CHART...

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

73.5%

SPREAD

—

VOL 24H

$225

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

RECENT 2M

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOADING DEPTH...

EXECUTION TICKET

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If liquidity stays thin, the displayed spread can look better than the actual executable opportunity.

RULES

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

Bill status, vote path, and chamber action

Legislative-process context for this market.

WATCH

Committee or floor calendar change

Recorded vote result and final chamber action

Any enrollment, signing, or veto step after passage

SOURCES

Congress.gov

House Clerk Votes

+1 more sources in evidence

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

—

TOTAL VOL 24H

$225

TOTAL DEPTH

—

MARKET AGE

1 MONTH

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

LIVE · 2026-05-28 07:20 UTC

DERIVED

RECENT · 2026-05-28 07:08 UTC

RULES

LIVE · 2026-05-28 07:20 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-05-28 07:20 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

MIXED DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 07:20 UTC

IMPLIED YES

73.5%

SPREAD —

VOL 24H $225

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

—

DEPTH

NO DEPTH

FRESH

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·—·F0

1K·—·F0

10K·—·F0

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

BOOK SHAPE

POLY BOOK

NO DEPTH · BALANCED

SPREAD

—

BALANCE

50 / 50

FILL

N/A

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

—

SELL SLIPPAGE

—

SPREAD·—

FILL CONFIDENCE·N/A

BUY SLIPPAGE·—

SELL SLIPPAGE·—

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWNERSHIP WORKSPACE

VISUAL ANALYTICS