MARKET OVERVIEW

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

CAUTIONMIXED DATAINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCEMIXED LENS

Resolution rule: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.

WATCH: Market state may be stale or partially degraded.

POLITICS · SINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEDATA 15m AGO

RECOMMENDED LENSMIXEDINSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE

Freshness is too weak to overstate actionability.

CORE VERDICTS

YES

1.6%

EDGE

INSUFFICIENT

CONFIDENCE

INSUFFICIENT

LIQUIDITY

THIN

RISK

WATCH

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE — single venue

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

INVALIDATION

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

NEG-RISKNeg-Risk Structure

1 outcomes linked·conversion-aware routing·Neg-risk conversion semantics require awareness of linked outcome structure

LOADING FAMILY WORKSPACE...

LAYOUT · NEG RISK · AUTO

MARKET SUMMARY

TRUST

MIXED

Confidence INSUFFICIENT. Calibration UNKNOWN. Quality MIXED.

CALIBRATION

UNKNOWN

QUALITY

MIXED

REGIME

NORMAL

EXECUTION

THIN

Best buy route is POLYMARKET. Best sell route is POLYMARKET. Visible depth is $655. Tightest spread is 0.1¢.

BEST BUY

POLYMARKET · 0.1¢

BEST SELL

POLYMARKET · 0.1¢

VISIBLE DEPTH

$655

BRACKET DISTRIBUTION

MODELED

NOW 2cHORIZON 48H

48h modeled price-bracket distribution for analysis only.

BRACKET INPUTS

PRICE2c

LIQUIDITYTHIN

VOLINFERRED

MOMENTUMUNKNOWN

CATALYSTUNKNOWN

WALLET FLOWUNKNOWN

PROVENANCE

FRESHSTALE

AS OF01:32 UTC

COVERAGESINGLE VENUE COVERAGE

OWNERUNKNOWN

BELOW 1C

1C - 1C

18%

1C - 2C

28%

2C - 13C

30%

13C - 24C

12%

ABOVE 24C

ALERT HOOKS

SHADOW MISMATCH DTO

SINGLE VENUE · WATCH · MARKET DETAIL SIGNALS

CHANGE

NEXT CATALYST

—

CATALYST ETA

—

TOP DRIVER

CONFIDENCE insufficient

CONTEXT

TARGETED

White House action and publication path

FOCUS

White House action and publication path

WATCH

3 ITEMS

SOURCES

ACCESS

FULL DETAIL

WATCH

Official executive action release

Transcript or briefing confirmation from the White House

Federal Register publication if the action requires it

SOURCES

White House Briefing Room Federal Register

COMPARISON

NOT_SAFE

Compare-safe state is not_safe.

COMPARE SAFE

NOT_SAFE

CONTRACT DIFF

NONE

COHERENCE

UNKNOWN

OTHER CONTRACTS

WATCH-ONLY

CHART

VENUEPOLY

MOVE—

RANGE—

FRESHUNKNOWN

PRICEUNKNOWN

LOFZDZ1 Q5B5M...

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING Q5B5M... // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

HISTORY BUILDING

Candle history has not accumulated yet.

Use the current quote, spread, and depth while the chart archive catches up.

YES

1.6%

SPREAD

0.1¢

VOL 24H

$2K

TRUTH / WATCH RAIL

LIVE TRUTH + WATCH ITEMS

STALE 15M

Coverage intact

EXECUTION TICKET

LOFZDZ1 R2T78...

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

LOADING R2T78... // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXLYS13P▒ Y█3RZQ

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 ░N // QLHY6█0KR

EXECUTIP▒ Y█3RZQ // FX44D2 0C // QLHY6█0KR

SUPPORT / EVIDENCE

THESIS

WHY NOW

No acute driver detected.

WATCH

If freshness or venue coverage worsens, displayed prices become less trustworthy as a decision input.

RULES

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

RULE HISTORY

CONTEXT

POLITICS CONTEXT

White House action and publication path

Executive-branch action context for this market.

WATCH

Official executive action release

Transcript or briefing confirmation from the White House

Federal Register publication if the action requires it

SOURCES

White House Briefing Room

Federal Register

EVIDENCE

MARKET SUMMARY

END DATE

27mo 21d

TOTAL VOL 24H

$2K

TOTAL DEPTH

$655

MARKET AGE

3 MONTHS

PROVENANCE

INTEGRITYSingle selected venue — no cross-venue confirmation.

QUOTES

RECENT · 2026-07-29 01:32 UTC

DERIVED

RECENT · 2026-07-29 01:32 UTC

RULES

LIVE · 2026-07-29 01:32 UTC

CONTEXT

MISSING · No timestamp available

AS OF

2026-07-29 01:32 UTC

COMPARISON DIGEST

No comparison summary available.

MISMATCH 1

single venue

SUP7L░E / F99HZHL▒

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S3 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S4 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S5 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S6 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S7 // D97M█PT8E

SUPPORT / F99HZHL▒ // 5LYY3W S8 // D97M█PT8E

VISUAL ANALYTICS

MARKET PULSE

POLY · SINGLE VENUE

MIXED DATASINGLE_VENUE COVERAGEAS OF 01:32 UTC

IMPLIED YES

1.6%

SPREAD 0.1¢

VOL 24H $2K

0¢50¢100¢

SPREAD

0.1¢

DEPTH

$655

FRESH

15m

SELECTED VENUE IMPACT

PRICE IMPACT VS NOTIONAL

100·0.3%·F75

1K·0.4%·F33

10K·0.4%·F3

LIQUIDITY PROFILE

FILL 33%

POLY BOOK

$655 · ASK HEAVY

SPREAD

0.1¢

BALANCE

8 / 92

FILL

33%

SLIPPAGE

BUY / SELL

BUY SLIPPAGE

0.22%

SELL SLIPPAGE

0.38%

SPREAD·0.1¢

FILL CONFIDENCE·33%

BUY SLIPPAGE·0.22%

SELL SLIPPAGE·0.38%

VISUAL ANALYTICS

OWNERSHIP · FLOW · RELATIONS

OWN█P02G0 ▓2KR9LH█B

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2G // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2H // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2K // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2L // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2M // TPM▓9░3NV

OWNERSHI0 ▓2KR9LH█B // K█77G5 2N // TPM▓9░3NV

VI▓C5X 8▒▒PCMPXP

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░D // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░E // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░F // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░G // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░H // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░K // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░L // QLHY6█0KR

VISUAL 8▒▒PCMPXP // FX44D2 ░M // QLHY6█0KR